{
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "rubric_version": "1.0",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)",
  "record": {
    "id": "O-0201",
    "slug": "ai-futures-project",
    "title": "AI Futures Project",
    "aliases": [],
    "status": "draft",
    "last_reviewed": "2026-09-23",
    "review_interval_days": 90,
    "steward": null,
    "provenance": {
      "drafted_by": "ai",
      "reviewed_by": []
    },
    "risk_flags": [],
    "flags": [],
    "kind": "research-org",
    "homepage": "https://www.aifutures.org/",
    "one_liner": "A small research group forecasting the future of AI; publisher of the AI 2040 scenario, including an inference-only verification plan.",
    "sources": [
      {
        "source": "S-0067",
        "supports": "AI 2040 verification plan: isolated inference units, taps, recomputation, memory wipes"
      },
      {
        "source": "S-1511",
        "supports": "companion page: component status, open problems, organizations working on verification"
      },
      {
        "source": "S-1410",
        "supports": "covert AI projects supplement: waste heat, detection, upstream supply-chain audits"
      }
    ],
    "type": "organization",
    "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/organizations/ai-futures-project/",
    "source_file": "content/organizations/ai-futures-project.md",
    "flags_all": [
      "ai-drafted"
    ],
    "body_markdown": "The AI Futures Project describes itself as \"a small research group forecasting the future of AI, funded by charitable donations and grants\". Its AI 2040 scenario has supplements on verification:\n\n- **Verification plan.** Dean's plan would convert data centres into isolated inference units, copy their traffic with network taps, recompute random samples and wipe memory periodically, so that only verified inference outputs persist [[S-0067]]. See [[I-0011]], [[M-0014]], [[M-0013]], [[M-0001]] and [[M-0015]].\n- **Get involved.** A companion page tracks the status and open problems of each component, and lists organizations working on verification [[S-1511]].\n- **Covert AI projects.** Halstead and Larsen discuss how a covert AI project might be hidden and detected, treating waste heat as the main constraint on hiding a facility [[S-1410]]; see [[M-0020]]. They propose auditing the semiconductor supply chain upstream to reconstruct past chip production [[S-1410]]; see [[M-0019]].",
    "body_text": "The AI Futures Project describes itself as \"a small research group forecasting the future of AI, funded by charitable donations and grants\". Its AI 2040 scenario has supplements on verification: - Verification plan. Dean's plan would convert data centres into isolated inference units, copy their traffic with network taps, recompute random samples and wipe memory periodically, so that only verified inference outputs persist [S-0067]. See AI 2040 inference-only verification stack, Bandwidth limits and compartmentalization, Network taps and certifiers, Sampled inference recomputation and Memory wiping and proofs of secure erasure. - Get involved. A companion page tracks the status and open problems of each component, and lists organizations working on verification [S-1511]. - Covert AI projects. Halstead and Larsen discuss how a covert AI project might be hidden and detected, treating waste heat as the main constraint on hiding a facility [S-1410]; see Remote detection of data centres. They propose auditing the semiconductor supply chain upstream to reconstruct past chip production [S-1410]; see Chip registries and manufacturing records.",
    "referenced_by": [
      {
        "id": "M-0014",
        "title": "Bandwidth limits and compartmentalization",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/bandwidth-limits-and-compartmentalization/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0019",
        "title": "Chip registries and manufacturing records",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/chip-registries-and-manufacturing-records/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0015",
        "title": "Memory wiping and proofs of secure erasure",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/memory-wiping-and-secure-erasure/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0013",
        "title": "Network taps and certifiers",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/network-taps-and-certifiers/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0020",
        "title": "Remote detection of data centres",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/remote-detection-of-data-centres/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0003",
        "title": "Reproducible computation packets",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/reproducible-computation-packets/"
      },
      {
        "id": "M-0001",
        "title": "Sampled inference recomputation",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/mechanisms/sampled-inference-recomputation/"
      },
      {
        "id": "I-0011",
        "title": "AI 2040 inference-only verification stack",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/implementations/ai-2040-inference-only-verification-plan/"
      },
      {
        "id": "S-1511",
        "title": "Get Involved in Verification",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/sources/ai-futures-get-involved-verification/"
      },
      {
        "id": "S-0067",
        "title": "Verification Plan",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/sources/dean-verification-plan/"
      },
      {
        "id": "S-1410",
        "title": "Covert AI Projects",
        "url": "https://trustbutveri.fyi/sources/halstead-covert-ai-projects/"
      }
    ]
  }
}